Notes Show Fed Deciding to Brush Aside Signs of Slower Growth
WASHINGTON, May 24 - Policy makers at the Federal Reserve brushed aside evidence of an economic slowdown early this month and made it clear that they wanted to keep raising interest rates in the months ahead.Notes from their meeting on May 3, released on Tuesday, suggested that the Federal Reserve was likely to raise rates several more times this year, even if higher oil prices take a toll on growth.
The notes also suggested considerable uncertainty and perhaps disagreement among Fed officials about the direction of the economy, causing some analysts to warn that the Fed's strategy of "measured" rate increases was murkier than it appeared.
Participants in the Fed meeting were confronted with a barrage of statistics that suggested slowing growth, but the participants indicated that they felt that any slowdown would be transitory and that they should "should not overreact to a comparatively small number of disappointing indicators."
In hindsight, the decision turns out to have been prescient. In the weeks since the meeting, new data has indicated that job creation, consumer spending and exports have been stronger than originally thought.
Indeed, Wall Street economists have been raising their estimates of growth for the first half of the year. On Thursday, the Commerce Department is expected to revise its estimate of growth in the first three months to 3.5 percent or higher, from 3.1 percent.
New data on Tuesday showed that the frenzy in the housing market was more fierce than ever.
The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes hit a record annual rate of 7.18 million in April and that the national median price for an existing home was 15.1 percent higher than a year earlier.
To the bewilderment of many Fed officials, the robust housing activity is being fed by rates on 30-year mortgages that have fallen even as the Fed has raised short-term interest rates eight times since last June.
At the time of their meeting, Fed officials were wrestling with evidence of slowing growth and faster inflation. The minutes suggested that they were more anxious about rising prices but divided among themselves about how serious the dangers might be.
What seemed to unite all the players was a sense that short-term interest rates were still too far below normal and would eventually fuel inflation.
"The key message is that short-term softness will not stop rate hikes," Ian Shepherdson, an economist at High Frequency Economics, wrote in a research note on Tuesday.
Fed officials were particularly fixated on higher oil prices, noting that they were feeding into higher prices for other goods and services and that businesses were having an easier time passing cost increases on to their customers.
According to the notes, which are sanitized summaries of the discussions, Fed officials were still reasonably confident that consumer prices would climb more slowly and that inflation expectations would remain low.
But the minutes also hint at disagreement about the underlying trends. Some Fed officials suggested that the Fed declare that the risks of inflation were "skewed to the upside," but they ultimately decided to say the risks remained "balanced."
Fed officials seemed openly muddled about the message they wanted to convey. In March, the central bank hedged its prediction of stable prices and growth by saying that it was dependent on "appropriate monetary policy."
In the May meeting, some officials complained that the prediction had been drained of any meaning - a criticism many private economists have made. Despite the complaint, the Fed kept the statement.
"This piling on of arguments and counterarguments is a sign that there's really a debate about what's going on," said Ethan Harris, an economist at Lehman Brothers.
The Fed's uncertainty is apparent in other ways though it still says it expects to raise rates at a measured pace. That has been interpreted as increasing the federal funds rate on overnight loans between banks by a quarter percentage point at each meeting.
But Fed officials have broadened the definition of measured, saying it is dependent on economic developments and "would not stand in the way of either a pause or a step-up" in rate increases.
Mr. Harris said Fed officials might be genuinely baffled by contradictory evidence: energy prices and commodity prices were higher and productivity growth was slower, but employment costs were barely keeping up with inflation.
Since the Fed's meeting, the inflation picture has brightened. The Labor Department reported last week that core inflation, which excludes prices for energy and food, had all but stopped in April. That was good news, but it may have heightened the confusion.
[ Last edited by annieingermany on 2005-5-30 at 16:50 ]
Notes Show Fed Deciding to Brush Aside Signs of Slower Growth
http://www2.tltc.ttu.edu/hein/images/greenspan.jpgfrenzy n.狂暴, 狂怒
bewilderment n.困惑, 迷乱, 为难, 慌张
anxious adj.观念的, 担忧的, 渴望的, 盼望的
sanitize v.清洁
underlying adj.在下面的, 根本的, 潜在的, [商]优先的
hedge n.树篱, 障碍物 v.用树篱围住, 避免作正面答复
baffled 带有障板的, 阻挡的-fling
contradictory adj.反驳的, 反对的, 抗辩的 n.矛盾因素, 对立物
[ Last edited by annieingermany on 2005-5-25 at 23:24 ] 最 近 刚 搬 家 ， 进 度 慢 了 ， 不 好 意 思
A TV Duel at Sunrise - 1/2
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2005/05/30/business/30abc.diane.jpghttp://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2005/05/29/business/30abc.chart.jpg
As soon as the digital clock in the control room of "Good Morning America" struck 7:20 last Wednesday, signaling the first commercial break of the day, Ben Sherwood bolted out the door.
Mr. Sherwood, the executive producer of the ABC program, was heading for the anchor desk occupied by Charles Gibson, Diane Sawyer and Robin Roberts. In his hand was a printed form with three columns - one each for ABC, NBC and CBS - that he used to chart the story selection on the competing morning programs, as gleaned from monitors overhead.
"What'd they do?" Mr. Gibson asked, referring specifically to "Today" on NBC. Mr. Sherwood told Mr. Gibson that unlike "Good Morning America," which had led its main news segment with rising home prices, "Today" had brought on Tim Russert for a sober discussion of the Congressional fight over judges and stem cell research. Mr. Sherwood then said that "Today," like "Good Morning America," had done a segment on Jennifer Wilbanks, the so-called runaway bride in Georgia.
"They have the stuff Mike had?" Mr. Gibson asked, in reference to the ABC reporter, Mike Von Fremd. No, Mr. Sherwood said. Mr. Von Fremd had reported that Ms. Wilbanks's family was prepared to offer as much as $14,000 to reimburse the authorities for some of what they had spent looking for her.
Mr. Gibson, peering at Mr. Sherwood through reading glasses, allowed himself a small smile.
For decades now, "Today" and "Good Morning America" have gone at each other like the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox, tracking each other's performance in the Nielsen ratings as if they were morning box scores (CBS's "The Early Show," the Cleveland Indians of the network morning shows, remains a distant third). But lately, "Good Morning America" has been displaying an aggressive feistiness - both on camera and, judging by a visit last Wednesday, backstage as well -drawn at least partly from a recent rise in its fortunes.
More than just bragging rights are at stake. The two programs routinely square off over interviews with the biggest newsmakers and Hollywood stars; concerts by the biggest acts and, ultimately, advertising dollars. Generating an estimated $250 million in profits, "Today" is believed to be the most lucrative program on television
Over the last decade, "Today" has always won, not only on an annual basis (by an average of nearly two million viewers a week in 2000-01), but week-to-week. As of the week of May 16, the last week for which final figures were available from Nielsen Media Research, "Today's" winning streak stood at 493 consecutive weeks.
And while the ABC program has yet to win that elusive week, and has drawn an average of 592,000 fewer viewers than "Today" on a weekly basis this television season (5.4 million to 6 million), it has gained sufficient momentum to force some changes at its rival's headquarters, just five blocks uptown.
In recent months, the margin separating the two programs during a given week has narrowed considerably, so much so - at one point this month to just 40,000 viewers - that Jeff Zucker, a former "Today" producer who is now president of NBC Universal Television Group, helped broker the firing in April of the NBC program's executive producer, Tom Touchet.
By the accounts of several executives last week, Mr. Zucker's disappointment with "Today" was also a factor in the recent decision by the president of NBC News, Neal Shapiro, to tell his bosses that he wished to leave his job.
In expressing his displeasure with "Today" under Mr. Touchet, Mr. Zucker characterized the program (led on camera by Katie Couric and Matt Lauer) as needing "a jolt." Others at NBC News have lamented that ABC's reinvigorated prime-time schedule - "Desperate Housewives" and "Grey's Anatomy" on Sunday, and "Lost" on Wednesday - has given "Good Morning America" a residual lift that NBC's suddenly low-rated evening lineup (for which Mr. Zucker is ultimately responsible) could not match.
But lost in such analyses is any suggestion that "Good Morning America" has helped make its own luck, which some veterans of the morning show wars believe it has.
[ Last edited by annieingermany on 2005-5-30 at 16:50 ]
A TV Duel at Sunrise - 2/2
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2005/05/29/business/30abc.chart2.jpg"It isn't all about what gets put on the night before," said Steve Friedman, a former executive producer of "Today" (1979-87; 1993-4) and the CBS "Early Show" (1999-02). "If it was, CBS would be No. 1 in the morning." (CBS is currently ranked first in total prime-time viewers.)
"You've got to be good enough to hold them," Mr. Friedman added. "For whatever reason, after six years of being together, Charlie and Diane are now clicking."
As an example of how he has tried to stimulate that clicking, Mr. Sherwood, who became executive producer a year ago, said that he had seized on an existing effort to make segments shorter - and had made them shorter still, particularly in the first half hour. An interview that might have stretched to seven minutes a year ago, he said, might now end after three and a half minutes.
"People live their lives at warp speed in the morning," said Mr. Sherwood, 41, who was previously the second-ranking producer on "NBC Nightly News" before taking a two-year break to write novels. "They're brushing their teeth, making a school lunch, changing a diaper. The program is pitched now to the way people live."
Like a fast-paced cable news channel, Mr. Sherwood has been decorating the screen with colorful graphics in which practical information (like how to sell your house) is pulled from segments in easy-to-digest bites.
The program has also moved aggressively, particularly on the last few Mondays, to retain the enormous audience of "Desperate Housewives" by offering so-called secret scenes, cut from the episode shown the previous night. After the May 22 season finale, "Good Morning America" drew an estimated 600,000 more viewers than "Today," according to preliminary figures provided to the networks by Nielsen. (The next day, without that "Desperate" lift, the ABC program lost by more than 800,000 viewers, according to early estimates.)
Asked last week how he reconciled the use of such material on a program operated by the news division, David Westin, president of ABC News, said he had no qualms.
"It's always been the case in the morning programs that there is an entertainment element," he said. "I have no doubt our audience is very happy to see those 'Desperate' outtakes."
Meanwhile, in the battle over "gets" - those interviews or concerts that each program seeks exclusively - "Good Morning America" can point to several in recent weeks that might not have come its way a year ago.
Early this month, for example, it broadcast exclusive concert footage from a U2 performance in Chicago that the program's entertainment producer, Mark Bracco, had been pursuing for more than three years.
Mr. Bracco also landed a longtime "Today" guest, the singer Mariah Carey, who introduced her new album with a concert outside the "Good Morning America" studios in Times Square. Ms. Carey was so pleased - she credits the concert with helping her single reach No. 1 on the pop chart - that last Wednesday night her representatives called Mr. Bracco to seek a walk-on during the next day's program to say thank you. She got her wish.
The ABC program has also made gains in securing access to those less famous. Last Wednesday's program featured a live interview from the neonatal unit of a Texas hospital with the mother of a rare set of identical quadruplets. Asked why the mother had chosen to go with "Good Morning America," Kris Muller, a spokeswoman for The Woman's Hospital of Texas in Houston, said the reason was simple: a "Good Morning America" producer had called the hospital five hours before a "Today" producer had.
"The people from 'Today' were very nice about it," she said. "They weren't rude. They didn't say, 'That's not fair.' "
Which is not to say that the principals are not sniping at each other.
Asked to size up the recent performance of "Good Morning America," Jim Bell, the new executive producer of "Today," said in a statement: "The 'Today' show is still the gold standard in morning television, and despite all the noise, the competition still follows us."
In an interview, Anne Sweeney, president of Disney-ABC Television, made a veiled reference to what some reviewers have called an on-camera awkwardness between Ms. Couric and Mr. Lauer on "Today."
Of the chemistry between Mr. Gibson and Ms. Sawyer, as well as Ms. Roberts (recently elevated to co-anchor), and Tony Perkins, the program's weatherman, Ms. Sweeney said: "They bring a real humanity to television in the morning. I don't see that elsewhere."
For now, the immediate goal at "Good Morning America" remains to break the nearly decade-long ratings winning streak of "Today," and to capture a week. It is a prospect so tantalizing that Ms. Sawyer, in an interview, would not even allow herself to muse about how it might feel. "You'll have to ask me if it happens," she said. "Call me if it happens."
[ Last edited by annieingermany on 2005-5-30 at 16:51 ]
A TV Duel at Sunrise
bolted n.门闩, 螺钉, 闪电, 跑掉 v.上门闩, 囫囵吞下, 逃跑anchor n.锚 v.抛锚, 锚定
glean v.拾落穗, 收集
sober adj.冷静的 v.镇定
feistiness 没找到!
brag n.v.吹牛
lucrative adj.有利的
lamented adj.被哀悼的, 令人遗憾的
reinvigorate vt.使再振作, 使复兴
residual adj.剩余的, 残留的
veteran n.老兵, 老手, 富有经验的人, 退伍军人 adj.老兵的, 经验丰富的
warp n.弯曲, 歪曲, 乖僻, 偏差, 乖戾, 偏见 vt.弄歪, 使翘曲, 使不正常, 歪曲, 使有偏见 vi.变弯, 变歪, 变的反常
diaper n.尿布
preliminary adj.预备的, 初步的
desperate adj.不顾一切的, 拚死的, 令人绝望的
quadruplet n.四组, 四胞胎中之一
veiled adj.以面罩遮掩的, 隐藏的
awkwardness n.笨拙, 不雅观
tantalizing adj.非常着急的
No Privacy in Your Cubicle? Try an Electronic Silencer
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2005/05/30/business/30hillis.cov.jpg
Two people in an office here were having a tête-à-tête, but it was impossible for a listener standing nearby to understand what they were saying. The conversation sounded like a waterfall of voices, both tantalizingly familiar and yet incomprehensible.
The cone of silence, called Babble, is actually a device composed of a sound processor and several speakers that multiply and scramble voices that come within its range. About the size of a clock radio, the first model is designed for a person using a phone, but other models will work in open office space.
The voice scrambling technology used in Babble was developed by Applied Minds, a research and consulting firm founded by Danny Hillis, a distinguished computer architect, and Bran Ferren, an industrial designer and Hollywood special effects wizard.
Babble, which is intended to function as a substitute for walls and acoustic tiling, is an example of a new class of product that uses computing technology to shape sound. Already on the market are headphones that can cancel extraneous noises and stereo systems that can direct sound to a particular location.
The system will be introduced in June by Sonare Technologies, a new subsidiary of Herman Miller, the maker of the Aeron chair, as part of an effort to move beyond office furniture. The company plans to sell the device for less than $400 through consumer electronics and office supply stores.
Herman Miller originally turned to Applied Minds without a specific product in mind; instead, they were hoping the firm would help it create new concepts.
"We complement each other well because Danny is a real scientist when it comes to deep analytics and physics," Mr. Ferren said of his partnership with Mr. Hillis. "I have a good general working knowledge and can give him insight on the aesthetics and design side."
The two men formed Applied Minds after leaving Walt Disney Imagineering in 2000. Mr. Hillis was a pioneer in the design of extremely powerful computers known as massively parallel supercomputers, having founded Thinking Machines, a company based in Cambridge, Mass., that subsequently went out of business in 1982.
Mr. Ferren has been a leader in movie effects, working on such films as "Little Shop of Horrors" and "Star Trek V: The Final Frontier," and has won Academy Awards for technical achievement. He also developed mirrored sunglasses for Revo in the 1980's. Applied Minds, housed in a cluster of five converted warehouses here, is a technology playhouse for a group of 100 designers who work on projects ranging from designing buildings for government agencies to trying to treat cancer through the emerging field of proteomics, the study of proteins.
"I have known Danny for 25 years and Bran almost as long," said Nicholas Negroponte, the founding chairman of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Media Laboratory. Their partnership, Mr. Negroponte said, "brings together two of the most interesting minds" in the country.
In addition to its work with Herman Miller, Applied Minds is developing some 40 new concepts and products for sponsors as diverse as General Motors, Cedars-Sinai Health System, Northrop Grumman, and the toymaker Funrise.
The Babble voice privacy system is the first commercial example of Applied Minds' approach in collaborative product design. The partnership with Herman Miller began three years ago after Mr. Hillis met Gary S. Miller, Herman Miller's chief development officer, at a technology and design conference in Monterey, Calif.
The Babble scrambling technology is not the first attempt at using technology to provide office privacy. Acoustic materials have been used for dampening sound and white noise generators are commercially available, but the Herman Miller executives said that their new system was more effective.
While many companies resist outside design collaboration, Herman Miller is unusual in that it has traditionally formed partnerships with independent industrial designers in the furniture business, Mr. Miller said.
"Our model has been to use outsiders," he said. "We needed to do that to enter new markets."
Herman Miller has a long history of exploring the leading edges of office furniture and computer technology. The company worked with the computer scientist Douglas C. Engelbart during the 1960's to design furniture and office systems that would help workers collaborate more effectively
No Privacy in Your Cubicle? Try an Electronic Silencer
cone of silence [讯]静锥区scramble n.爬行, 攀缘, 抢夺, 混乱 vi.攀缘, 杂乱蔓延, 争夺, 拼凑, 匆忙 vt.攀登, 搅乱, 使混杂
wizard n.神汉, 男巫, 术士, 奇才 adj.男巫的, 巫术的, 有魔力的
acoustic tile 吸声瓦
extraneous adj.无关系的, 外来的, [化]外部裂化, [化]新异反射
aesthetics n.美学, 美术理论, 审美学, 美的哲学
dampen v.使潮湿, 使沮丧
补充一个，呵呵
reimburse v.偿还momentum n.动力, 要素
[ Last edited by annieingermany on 2005-5-30 at 23:03 ]
Donaldson Announces Resignation as S.E.C. Chairman
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2005/06/01/national/05donald.jpgWilliam Donaldson, the 27th chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, will step down at the end of the month, the commission announced today.
Mr. Donaldson became chairman in February 2003 in the wake of missteps by his predecessor, Harvey Pitt. His tenure began as a wave of corporate scandals crested and as state regulators, most notably the New York attorney general, Eliot Spitzer, stepped up competitive regulatory efforts.
"When I assumed the chairmanship of the Securities and Exchange Commission roughly two and one-half years ago, public confidence was severely undermined, reflecting the corporate and financial scandals that had shaken the nation," Mr. Donaldson said in a statement. "Thanks to the dedicated efforts of the many professionals who serve at the S.E.C., this period has represented an extraordinarily active and effective time for the agency."
Still, Mr. Donaldson's tenure has been controversial. The commission consists of two Democrats, two Republicans and a chairman appointed by the president. Mr. Donaldson, a Republican, has sided with the two Democratic commissioners on high-profile issues including mutual fund governance, hedge fund regulation and the ability for shareholders to nominate directors to corporate boards.
Mr. Donaldson, who turns 74 on Thursday, helped found the brokerage firm of Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette in 1959 and was a chairman of the New York Stock Exchange.
predecessor n.前辈, 前任, (被取代的)原有事物
tenure n.(土地等的)使用和占有, (官职等的)保有, 任期, (土地)使用期限
scandal n.丑行,丑闻,诽谤,耻辱,流言蜚语
attorney general n.首席检察官, 司法部长
extraordinarily adv.格外地
controversial adj.争论的, 争议的
mutual fund <美>共有基金(一种投资公司形式)
hedge n.树篱, 障碍物，v.用树篱围住, 避免作正面答复